Rapid Commerce Could Mirror UPI’s Success in India

DTDC Express Limited and BCG jointly published a report that estimated that the size of the rapid commerce industry to cross $20 billion by 2030. Besides, the report also revealed a $2 billion+ logistics opportunity around dark stores and last-mile delivery. 

In a conversation with Abhishek Chakraborty, CEO, DTDC Express Limited and Rahul Sanghvi, Managing Director & Partner, BCG, FE Retail discussed growth drivers, logistics innovation, the role of AI, and why D2C brands are betting big on this evolving rapid commerce space.

Excerpts: 

Abhishek and Rahul, your report suggests that the rapid commerce market in India is projected to cross $20 billion by 2030. What are the biggest growth drivers for this segment?

Rahul: We believe the growth in rapid commerce is being driven by three key factors, all converging simultaneously.

First, there's a rising spending propensity, especially among the middle class,—not just in urban India, but also in Tier-II and Tier-III cities.

Second, greater digital penetration. The number of people shopping online has exploded. Just to put it in perspective, when I started working two decades ago, there were about 5 lakh online shoppers in 2010. Today, that number is close to 25 crore, and it's expected to reach 50 crore by 2030.

And third, perhaps most importantly, we're witnessing a reset in customer expectations. With developments in quick commerce and digital payments, customers are now demanding faster and better service levels. These three trends together are propelling the growth of rapid commerce.

Abhishek: Rahul covered the main points really well. I would just add that India’s demographic dividend is playing a huge role here. It’s not just about more people shopping online; it's about who they are—young, digitally savvy consumers across the country.

What’s become evident is that convenience is starting to trump cost. Consumers still want value, of course, but they're increasingly willing to pay a bit more for added convenience. That trade-off is becoming more prominent and will be a major push factor in the coming years.

And what is the current size of the rapid commerce segment in India?

Abhishek: It's still at a nascent stage. The market is just evolving now.

It’s important to distinguish what we mean by rapid commerce. As our report outlines, it's the space between the extreme of 10 to 15-minute deliveries (typical of quick commerce) and the traditional 2 to 4-day delivery timelines seen in classical marketplaces.

Currently, the segment would be worth a few hundred million dollars, but the growth trajectory is explosive.

What’s driving this is the fact that brands and businesses are seeing the value of speed—first through next-day delivery, and then by experimenting with quick commerce platforms. However, not every product or brand can sustain the cost structure of 10-minute delivery, nor does every customer want to wait 3–4 days.

There’s a sweet spot emerging for delivery windows like 2 hours, 4 hours, even same-day, which fits perfectly for many product categories.

Rahul: That’s right. Quick commerce players like Blinkit and Zepto dominate the faster delivery side. But rapid commerce, as Abhishek said, is emerging as a middle ground—a high-growth area, potentially seeing triple-digit or even quadruple-digit growth over the next few years.

Who are the key players currently operating in this rapid commerce segment? For example, I know Myntra offers 4 to 6-hour delivery in some cases.

Rahul: Across categories, players are either experimenting or planning pilots.

In grocery, for instance, bigbasket has been doing this for a while and is now branding it as a rapid service.

In fashion and lifestyle, you’re right—Myntra and Flipkart have started offering same-day or 4- to 6-hour delivery windows in select cities.

What’s also interesting is that individual brands, especially direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands, as well as legacy brands, are showing strong interest. Many of them already have a solid share in online commerce and are actively planning to enter this space in the coming quarters.

You’re saying individual D2C brands—those with both online and offline presence—will start focusing more on 4- to 6-hour delivery?

Rahul: Exactly. Not so much the pure offline retailers, but online-first or omni-channel brands that are now expanding offline. They see rapid commerce as a way to enhance customer loyalty and stickiness.

Abhishek: Yes, and let me give you a couple of examples.

One of our premium customers is Chandelier XR, and another is Healthkart, which is a leader in food and health supplements. Healthkart has now also ventured into beauty categories. It's a homegrown D2C brand that started online and now has an omni-channel presence.

These brands are experiencing higher customer stickiness when they move to rapid commerce delivery models.

To your question about future players—while localised players exist in some cities, we believe the real scale will come from collaboration between large D2C brands and skilled logistics players like us.

For example, DTDC (our company) operates across 70% of India, reaching 96% of the population, with over 15,500 partners and 600 owned facilities. That kind of infrastructure allows us to offer flexibility and scale for rapid commerce.

That’s a strong infrastructure advantage. But does that mean D2C brands will avoid building their own distribution networks and instead rely on players like you?

Rahul: Absolutely. Large marketplaces like Amazon or Flipkart can afford to build their own distribution systems, but most D2C brands cannot.

That’s where third-party enablers like us come in. Brands benefit from our scale, infrastructure, and cost-sharing.

They also don’t need to set up their own dark stores—instead, they can use shared dark stores across multiple brands, which is far more scalable and affordable. This shared model is what will drive sustainability and long-term success in the rapid commerce space.

Let me break it down with some numbers. Today, India’s e-commerce market stands at around $125 billion, and it’s expected to touch $300 billion in just two years. A large chunk of that will be next-day delivery.

The real opportunity we see lies in the middle—what we call rapid commerce. That’s your 2–6 hour delivery window. Even if it captures just 10% of the market, it would already be worth $10–12 billion, with the potential to scale to $20–40 billion over time.